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2월 27일
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FORBES.COM TELECOM NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 11, 2008
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Street In Neutral; Auto Rescue On Hold
Lawmakers were trying to pass the bailout, while rocky jobs data held back stocks.
Stocks Slump Over Jobless Data, Autos
Weekly unemployment claims are soaring as the Detroit bailout faces another setback.
Orascom Calls On North Korea
Egyptian telecom's shares jump as it prepares to enter the frontier market.
Sprint's Ring Dims
The telco expects to shutter call centers due to fewer complaints--and customers.
Greek Tragedy
As rioters run through Athens for a third day, bond yields hit a high against comparable German issues.
Deflation Descends Upon The U.S.
A self-perpetuating decline in the price of goods will make debts harder to repay and prolong economic misery.
Gurus Buy Banks And Big Macs
The best-performing online investors grabbed banks and ditched drug makers.
The New Panama Red
The Russians and the rest of the world will be coming through a widened Panama Canal.
IBM's Infinite Research Problem
IBM tackles deep computing problems, including some of its own making.
Media Mayhem
When the S&P 500's dividend yield topped that on Treasurys for the first time since 1958, where were the headlines?
AT&T Signals Big Job Cut
The telecom firm is laying off 12,000 workers and slashing capital expenditures.
Autos, Retail, Oil
Senate hearings,rate cuts, oil and layoffs weigh on investors.
Stocks Down As Automakers Pitch Congress
This is a transcript of the Market Update: Afternoon video report.
U.S. Grapples With Fading Jobs
The latest round of gloomy economic data did little to raise investors' spirits.
AT&T To Disconnect 12,000 Jobs
The telecom firm will cut 4% of its workforce and reduce capital spending in the coming year.
Street Sways On News Deluge
Investors were swamped by automaker hearings in D.C., rate cuts across the pond and corporate notices.
Stocks Down As Automakers Seek Loans
This is a transcript of the Market Update: Midday video report.
America, The Jobless
Employment situation seems bleak and factory orders flag.
Autos Grilled On Capitol Hill
GM Chief says company needs bridge loan by end of 2008.
Slow Boil For Wall Street
A surprise fall in jobless claims and easing in Europe did little to boost stocks on Thursday.
Alcatel Stays Mobile
Franco-American telecom's decision to stay in the mobile network business is wise, though cost cuts are needed.
Investors Return To European Equities
Despite gloomy data pointing to a recession, a rally was sparked in Europe.
Asian Stocks Show Some Springback Action
Financial shares rise, and resource stocks mostly follow suit, but weak U.S. sales data hammer Japanese and Korean automakers.
Europe Shrivels Ahead Of Rate Cut Decision
Equities turned negative ahead of pending decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Telecom Italia Turnaround Plan Leaves Investors Cold
Job cuts and asset disposals cannot cheer up sentiment in the difficult environment the network operator is facing.
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Business this week
Dec 11th 2008
From The Economist print edition
America’s House of Representatives voted to bail out two of Detroit’s carmakers. The legislation proposes extending emergency short-term loans to cash-strapped General Motors and Chrysler. During negotiations the White House insisted that the companies be required to make drastic changes to their operations and reduce costs by next spring, or risk losing access to the public funding; there will be a “car tsar”. Some Republican senators threatened to delay, or possibly kill, the bill. See article
Volkswagen made public its application for help from Germany’s €500 billion ($650 billion) bank bail-out programme. The carmaker’s affiliated bank and financial-services units both want state loan guarantees.
Tribune filed for bankruptcy protection. The company, which publishes the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune and other big-city newspapers, was bought by Sam Zell, a property mogul, last year and is saddled with some $13 billion in debt. See article
The New York Times said its parent company might raise up to $225m against the value of the newspaper’s new headquarters. In common with most of its rivals, the “Gray Lady” is reeling from a sharp decline in advertising revenues and readers.
Merrill Lynch said John Thain had “requested that he receive no bonus” this year for his work as chairman and chief executive. Earlier, New York state’s attorney-general, who is investigating executive-compensation practices, had written to the company and thundered that he found it “nothing less than shocking” that Mr Thain was said to be seeking a $10m bonus. Merrill Lynch was forced to sell itself to Bank of America during Wall Street’s meltdown in September. Morgan Stanley promptly announced that its chief executive, John Mack, would also get no bonus for 2008.
Yields on three-month Treasuries fell, at one point reaching -0.01%, a stark indication of investors’ continued wariness of risk. Speculation increased that the Federal Reserve might make further unconventional interventions to push down long-term borrowing costs. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet on December 15th and 16th.
Payroll employment in America fell by 533,000 in November, the biggest monthly drop since December 1974. The unemployment rate crept up to 6.7%. A broader government measure of joblessness, which includes people who want a job but have given up looking for work, rose to 12.5%.
Sony laid out another cost-cutting strategy, in which it will shed at least 16,000 permanent and temporary jobs, pull back on investments and outsource some production. The Japanese consumer-electronics company, along with its Asian rivals, is suffering from the global economic downturn. It has already halved its annual profit forecast amid falling demand for its Bravia LCD televisions.
Rio Tinto also unveiled a plan to rein in costs. The Anglo-Australian mining company, which spent most of this year resisting a takeover bid from BHP Billiton, is reducing its capital expenditure and selling assets to pay down $10 billion in debt by the end of next year. It will cut 14,000 jobs. See article
Other companies announcing big rounds of job cuts this week included Dow Chemical, which is losing 5,000 employees and closing 20 plants in America and Europe; 3M, where 2,300 positions will go; and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which is axing 6% of its American workforce. Three-quarters of the job losses at the brewer, the product of a big recent merger, will fall on St Louis. Some 30,000 jobs were at risk at Britain’s Woolworths as the retail chain, which is in administration, rolled out a closure plan.
Libya expressed an interest in taking a stake of up to 10% in Eni. The Italian oil and gas company is the largest and longest established foreign oil company in Libya, which has sought new international investments over the past two years after a thaw in its relations with the West.
The buy-out of BCE was finally terminated after auditors ascertained the transaction would make Bell Canada’s parent company insolvent. It was first announced in June 2007, at the tail-end of a private-equity boom and at about the time that the credit crunch started. The deal was worth around C$50 billion ($40 billion).
Playboy advertised for a new chief executive when Christie Hefner said she was stepping down. Ms Hefner, the daughter of the magazine’s founder, Hugh Hefner, wants to leave the world of adult entertainment to become involved in public service.
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Politics this week
Dec 11th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The UN said that nearly 800 people had died of cholera in Zimbabwe; suspected cases rose to over 15,000. South African officials said part of their border with Zimbabwe was subsequently a “disaster area”. Zimbabwe’s government continued to hound human-rights and opposition campaigners, 18 of whom have gone missing since October. See article
In a so-far-peaceful presidential election in Ghana the candidate of the ruling party, Nana Akufo-Addo, got just over 49% of the vote, while his rival, John Atta Mills of the main opposition party, got nearly 48%. A run-off will take place on December 28th. See article
In South Africa a breakaway faction of the ruling African National Congress, facing its first test at the polls, won many seats in by-elections for local councils across the country. See article
Israel’s outgoing prime minister, Ehud Olmert, described recent attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians in and around the West Bank city of Hebron as a “pogrom”, after Israeli security forces forcibly removed militant settlers from a disputed house in the city. See article
Michael Ignatieff, a former writer, took over as leader of Canada’s opposition Liberals from Stéphane Dion. Mr Dion had hoped to oust Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government by forming a centre-left coalition; Mr Harper dodged that by securing a short suspension of Parliament. Mr Ignatieff is cooler towards the coalition plan. See article
In a provincial election in Quebec, Jean Charest, the Liberal premier, won a majority and a third term, but the separatist Parti Québécois did better than predicted.
Mexico’s Congress approved a bill to rationalise police powers, allowing undercover agents and wiretap evidence but also requiring officers to register all arrests more quickly. The government is trying to strengthen the police in the face of violence from drug gangs in which nearly 5,400 people have died this year.
In Argentina, forensic anthropologists confirmed that more than 10,000 bone fragments found inside a former detention centre were human remains. At least 10,000 people disappeared at the hand of a military dictatorship in the late 1970s and early 1980s as part of a “dirty war” against leftist guerrillas.
Federal prosecutors arrested the Democratic governor of Illinois for corruption. Rod Blagojevich was charged, among other things, with trying to “sell” the Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama on his presidential win. The United States attorney leading the investigation stressed that Mr Obama was not involved. See article
The events in Illinois were an unwelcome distraction for Mr Obama, who earlier provided details about his plans for a public-works programme, describing it as the largest new investment since road-building projects in the 1950s. See article
Eric Shinseki was nominated to be secretary for veterans’ affairs in the Obama administration. As army chief of staff in 2003, General Shinseki gave prescient testimony to Congress that more troops would be required to stabilise Iraq, leading to a public falling-out with the then defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld.
At a pre-trial hearing in Guantánamo, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-confessed mastermind behind the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks, and four co-defendants said they wanted to plead guilty. They were told that doing so could mean they would not be sentenced to death, an outcome they ardently desire. See article
The Republicans won a special election for a New Orleans seat in the House of Representatives. The nine-term Democratic incumbent, William Jefferson, had become ensnared in a bribery investigation; $90,000 in cash was found in his freezer. The district’s new representative will be Anh “Joseph” Cao, the first Vietnamese-American to serve in Congress. See article
A military jet on a training mission from the USS Abraham Lincoln crashed into a San Diego neighbourhood, killing four people on the ground. The pilot ejected to safety.
In China, year-on-year exports fell by 2% in November, with imports down by 18%. The shocking data suggest an unprecedented slowdown—between 2000 and 2006 Chinese exports grew at an annual average rate of 26%. See article
Partly thanks to China’s slowdown, Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised 1.8% in the three months to September, worse than expected. The popularity of Taro Aso, prime minister since September, continued to slide, as doubts about his future grew.
China celebrated the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights by arresting dozens of peaceful protesters. See article
In the latest struggle between followers and opponents of ousted prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s opposition claimed to have the support of enough members of parliament to form a new anti-Thaksin government when parliament convenes for a special session.
Pakistan arrested a score of Islamist militants, including two members of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. One of them is said by India to be the mastermind behind the recent terrorist attack on Mumbai. See article
An orgy of riots broke out across Greece after a policeman shot a teenager dead in Athens. The government wobbled, the opposition called for a new election and the trade unions staged a general strike. See article
European Union leaders gathered in Brussels for the final summit of France’s six-month stint in the EU presidency. President Nicolas Sarkozy hoped to secure last-ditch deals on climate change and economic stimulus measures, plus an Irish promise to hold a second referendum next year on the Lisbon treaty.
Vandals desecrated some 500 graves of Muslim war veterans in northern France. Mr Sarkozy called it “the expression of a repugnant racism”.
Ukraine’s pro-Western “orange” coalition government, which collapsed in September, was re-formed in a different guise, averting a possible general election. The Ukrainian economy is tottering and the country is borrowing $16 billion from the IMF.
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Dear Reader,
Emerging Asia's two economic dynamos are spluttering. Until quite recently, China and India, the world's fastest-growing big economies both felt themselves largely immune from the contagion afflicting the rich world. Now the bad numbers are piling up and the growth forecasts, though still impressive by Western standards, are falling to levels where there could be profound political consequences. In our view, India's economy is weaker, but China's leaders have more to fear. We have a 14-page special report on India and a briefing on the 30 years of changes in China that were sparked off by Deng Xiaoping.
Here are some other pieces from this week's issue you might also be interested in. You can click straight through to each one and read it online at Economist.com using the links below.
John Micklethwait
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THIS WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS:
Beware Greeks throwing petrol bombs
What lies behind the riots
Buyer's remorse in the corporate world
Some deals people surely wish they had not done
Why your next car will avoid collisions
Technology that will help you drive better
Obama's great splurge
Where would all this infrastructure spending go?
The tragedy of Europe's left
It thinks it won the argument, but it lost the war
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He Will Harden You to Difficulty
Today's Scripture
"Fear not [there is nothing to fear], for I am with you; do not look around you in terror and be dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen and harden you to difficulties, yes, I will help you; yes, I will hold you up and retain you with My [victorious] right hand of rightness and justice" (Isaiah 41:10, AMP).
Today's Word from Joel and Victoria
It's easy to look around at what's happening in the earth today and be tempted to feel afraid or dismayed. Circumstances may seem overwhelming. Maybe your business is struggling, maybe you lost your job, maybe you're struggling in a relationship or concerned about the economy. During times like these, it's important to remember that God has promised that He will never leave us nor forsake us. In fact, not only is He with us, He has promised to strengthen us and harden us to difficulties. That means, when tough times come, they just bounce right off of you. You don't allow your circumstances to steal your peace and joy. You have the attitude that says, "This may be a big problem, but my God is bigger!"
Keep in mind that the enemy isn't after your checkbook; he's ultimately after your peace and joy. He knows that if he can get your joy then he can get your strength. But when you stay connected to the Father through prayer and studying the Word and declare His promises over your life, you'll be hardened to difficulties and stay safe in the palm of God's hand!
A Prayer for Today
Father in heaven, thank You for Your precious promises. I renounce fear today and choose to trust that You have a plan of victory in store for me. Thank You for filling me with Your peace and joy and staying close to me all the days of my life. In Jesus' Name. Amen
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| Editor’s Note
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Dillard's is coming under increased hedge fund pressure. Barington Capital and Clinton Group are demanding access to the inner workings of the retail store chain. The funds have accused the Dillard family of self-dealing.
**ATTENTION READERS: WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK. POST YOUR COMMENTS TODAY IN HEDGEFUND.NET'S NEW COMMENTARY SECTION AT THE END OF EVERY ARTICLE**
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| News Headlines
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| New Vision Honcho to Run Fixed Income
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| Vision Capital has hired Andrew Lutz to build out its fixed income business.
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| [more]
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| Hedge Funds Step Up Pressure on Dillards
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| Barington Capital and Clinton Group are pressuring the Dillard family to come clean about the operation of its department store chain.
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| [more]
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| Hedge Fund Pushes Credit Co
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| Sandell Asset Management is pushing a company that has weakened during the credit crunch to up the hedge fund firms board representation. In this case, the company is the one that ranks consumer credit.
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HFN RealTime tracks the aggregate performance of hedge funds, funds of funds and CTAs as reported by their managers to HedgeFund.net. HFN calculates equal-weighted averages across 33 investment strategies as well as the aggregate roll-up groups you see below. To see more of the HFN Averages.Click Here
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| HFN Real Time
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| last updated: 12/10/2008 |
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E>
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| Realtime(estimates)
| Final Results
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| HFN Aggregate Averages
| Active Funds In Average
| Nov
| Funds Reporting
| Oct
| Funds Reporting
| Sep 2008
| Aug 2008
| YTD 2008 (thru Sep)
| 2007
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| HFN Hedge Fund Aggregate Average
| 5494
| -0.66%
| 1253
| -5.90%
| 4323
| -5.56%
| -1.09%
| -8.95%
| 10.53%
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| HFN Fund of Funds Aggregate Average
| 3125
| NA
| NA
| -6.36%
| 2063
| -6.01%
| -1.56%
| -11.57%
| 9.27%
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| HFN Aggressive Aggregate Average
| 298
| 1.46%
| 76
| -2.32%
| 242
| -2.02%
| -1.67%
| -3.60%
| 11.59%
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| HFN Equity Hedge Aggregate Average
| 2118
| -2.00%
| 458
| -7.51%
| 1645
| -7.19%
| -1.26%
| -13.58%
| 10.76%
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| HFN Relative Value Aggregate Average
| 842
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| 173
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| 652
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| -6.45%
| 7.79% |
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| HFN Insider Observations
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| Should 'We The People' Save Detroit?
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| While I listened to the Big Three chairmen defend their case for either a loan, or cash investment, or whatever form that government assisted aid may take, I pondered the more fundamental question as to the viability of the business and if they should be saved or allowed to fail, if that is their ultimate plight.
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The HedgeFund.net database contains over 110 hedge fund products which focus their investment strategy around the use of options and their broad and varying characteristics. The approaches used to extract value from option prices varies from quantitative model-driven arbitrage strategies, to more straight forward option writing (selling) strategies.
Volatility in October exposed some weakness within a handful of funds in the option strategy benchmark. As a result, the HFN Options Strategy Average was -6.67% during the month. The full report contains total asset estimates in the strategy and a discussion of options strategies which were able to perform well during October and ideas as to what exactly was the cause of the benchmark's drop.
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| News Headlines
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| New Vision Honcho to Run Fixed Income
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Vision Capital has hired Andrew Lutz to build out its fixed income business.
The hedge fund said Lutz, who joined from Susquehanna International Group, will serve as a managing director.
His role is a new function for Vision Capital, the hedge fund said. Lutz is a 17-year veteran of the asset management business.
Longtime Rose Glen Capital trader Adam Benowitz and Harvard University Professor Randy Cohen co-founded Vision Capital in 2005. In September, a report emerged that ousted Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer Stanley O'Neal was negotiating for a possible job at the hedge fund.
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| Click Here To Read Comments on This Story or Submit Your Own
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| Hedge Funds Step Up Pressure on Dillards
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Barington Capital and Clinton Group are pressuring the Dillard family to come clean about the operation of its department store chain.
Their SEC filing requested access to information on Dillard's business model. Little Rock, Ark.-headquartered Dillard's said its revenue in November fell 10%. Slumping Dillard's also posted a $55 million third quarter loss.
Barington Capital and Clinton Group wrote a letter to the Dillard's board asking for company information, the filing said.
In October, Barington Capital and Clinton Group came out in favor of the ouster of Dillard's head William Dillard II and accused the Dillard clan of self-dealing.
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| Click Here To Read Comments on This Story or Submit Your Own
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| Hedge Fund Pushes Credit Co
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Sandell Asset Management is pushing a company that has weakened during the credit crunch to up the hedge fund firm's board representation. In this case, the company is the one that ranks consumer credit.
New York-based Sandell made a deal with Minneapolis-based Fair Isaac Corp. to raise the number of hedge fund-sponsored directors from two to four, according to a regulatory filing. Fair Isaac is the company that created the FICO credit rating which is used by virtually every company that issues credits to consumers, from auto companies to mortgage lenders to credit card issuers.
As credit has dried up, Fair Isaac's business has shrunk. The company reported fourth quarter revenues of $178.2 million in 2008 compared to $198.7 million for the same quarter last year.
Sandell has a 5.9% stake in Fair Isaac.
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| HFN Insider Observations
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| Should 'We The People' Save Detroit?
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|
While I listened to the Big Three chairmen defend their case for either a loan, or cash investment, or whatever form that government assisted aid may take, I pondered the more fundamental question as to the viability of the business and if they should be saved or allowed to fail, if that is their ultimate plight.
In this new global economy, private businesses should have the opportunity to fail under our form of economic Darwinism. Why should the automakers be any different than any other business? Many would argue that there will be extreme repercussions-that the collateral damage around the industry will be far reaching and drag other people and businesses down with it. But should investment capital really flow artificially to where it is not being utilized properly and will not generate an appropriate return for the risk that is being taken? In my opinion, it should not.
And how idiotic is it for the Big Three chairmen to FLY in on their own corporate jets while 1) they run AUTO companies and 2) the economy is in the toilet? When I was lending money and also doing some workouts, the first things to look at and jettison were the corporate toys. You don't ask for a handout after stepping off a Gulfstream.
Will the U.S. and the world survive GM and/or Chrysler and/or Ford going bankrupt? Yes it will, just as we survived The Great Depression and Europe survived the Bubonic plague (although 200 million people died). It will not be easy and we will all suffer to some extent but if we really believe in Truth, Justice and The American Way, and the automakers can not be competitive (delivering goods that the consumer wants) and profitable (generating appropriate return on capital) then they should not be in business.
Should we support and subsidize aircraft makers if they can't compete on the world stage? Where do we draw the line? If my business is failing, why shouldn't the government save my business, even if it is inconsequential to the economy?
The automakers, like any business in 2008, need to get their cost structure in line and be a profitable enterprise as a going concern or they should go by the way of the buggy whip, dodo bird and other outmoded items in our everchanging world. Why do many people buy foreign cars in the first place? The reasons are numerous: style, dependability, luxury, prestige, performance, etc.
Detroit needs to reinvent itself and figure out if they can compete on the world stage with other auto makers in both price and desirability. Perhaps the UAW needs to be dissolved and their members paid what others with only high school educations get paid: minimum wage or slightly more. The tail has wagged the dog long enough and seems to have broken its legs and given it arthritis. We should not throw good money after bad. There is no easy solution or way out, but we all need to search our souls, contemplate where we would each invest our own next $10,000, and see if it would be in one of the Big Three auto makers. I don't think that would generate the best return on my capital.
The views expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect the views of Channel Capital Group. Inc.
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2월 26일
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“Lord, what do you want me to do?” The Lord said, “Go into the city, and you will be told what you must do” (Acts 9:6).
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| This Week’s Featured Resource
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Led By The Carpenter
Would you like to sift through the confusion of living in a world without purpose during these difficult times? Dr. Kennedy offers a blueprint in this classic book that perhaps has more meaning now then ever before.
Few Christians take the time to
explore every aspect of their lives to discover God’s purpose for them. He
may have a new direction for you, and it may be right in front of your eyes!
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FORBES.COM RICH KARLGAARD NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 10, 2008
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TalkBack: What Is Gold Telling Us?
12.09.2008, 14:30:18 EST - Rich Karlgaard
Rich Karlgaard explains how the price of gold tells us a lot about the value of oil and the economy.
What is Gold Telling Us?
12.09.2008, 10:00:00 EST - Rich Karlgaard
The price of oil and gold are economic indicators we should watch.
Depression Ditch Within A Mild Recession
12.08.2008, 09:49:54 EST - Rich Karlgaard
What tanked the market last Monday was word that the National Bureau of Economic Research had declared December 2007 as the starting point of this recession. That was always a close call. The traditional yardstick of two negative quarters in...
Housing Catches A Break
12.04.2008, 13:31:41 EST - Rich Karlgaard
Nouriel Roubini and Gary Shilling, two bears who predicted the causes and severity of the recession and stock crash, are still very much bears. Shilling thinks U.S. house prices will drop another 20%. I seldom agree with Shilling, but heck,...
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FORBES.COM EXECUTIVES' TOP PICKS NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 10, 2008
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Chrysler's Hidden Coffers
December 9, 2008 Dan Gerstein
Why is Cerberus, one of the world's richest private equity firms, begging for a bailout?
America's Fastest-Dying Towns
December 8, 2008 Matt Woolsey
Ten spots where jobs are vanishing, incomes are dropping and poverty levels are rising.
It's A Dirty Job, And I Love It!
December 9, 2008 Mike Rowe
Whether it's milking venomous spiders or picking up roadkill, the secret to career fulfillment is not to follow your passions, but to chase your opportunities.
America's Worst Small Towns For Commuters
December 9, 2008 Jon Bruner
Those in the country's little spots don't necessarily have easy trips to work.
Sprint's Sounds Of Silence
December 9, 2008 Ruthie Ackerman
Company plans to close call centers; fewer customers apparently means fewer complaints.
Dollar Devaluation To Fix The Great Recession
December 9, 2008 Frank Beck
A quick dollar devaluation would work wonders for submerged borrowers. Don't kid yourself: It could happen.
Better Off Without Yahoo!
December 9, 2008 Brian Caulfield
So, you just got laid off from the struggling portal. Congratulations.
Create Your Own Job
December 9, 2008 Paul Maidment
Recessions are usually great times to start a business--and this one might be better than most.
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Dear Reader,
This month sees the launch of our special inauguration audio set, featuring articles on the swearing in of US presidents since 1845, and our Christmas double edition. And the latest in our series of online debates has reached the rebuttals stage.
Special audio edition: Manifest destinies
To mark the forthcoming inauguration of Barack Obama, The Economist has produced a very special audio compilation of historic articles on the inaugurations of those who have preceded him, from James Polk to George Bush, as well as momentous highlights from Barack Obama's election.
Packed with history and drama and read by some of British radio's most memorable and authoritative voices, the special audio pack is available as a gift CD set or for download online.
Priced at £25 (approximately US$40), the audio set makes the ideal Christmas gift for anyone with an interest in US politics. Order by December 16th to ensure delivery in time for Christmas.
Online debate: Carbon offsets
The latest in our series of online debates has reached the rebuttals stage—and already discussion is proving lively. Have your say and cast your vote now.
The proposition is: "This house believes that carbon offsets undermine the effort to tackle climate change."
Our moderator, Emma Duncan, Deputy Editor of The Economist, explains why the issue has become so controversial:
"Carbon offsets are designed to reduce emissions by allowing countries, companies or individuals to purchase 'offsets' to reduce their carbon footprints. However, critics argue that rather than encouraging the fundamental changes to lifestyle and corporate behaviours necessary to tackle climate change, carbon offsets provide a convenient loophole to appease regulators and personal consciences. Do carbon offsets really reduce emissions or are they a cynical effort to ignore the problem?"
Log on, swap ideas with fellow readers and vote now.
Debate schedule:
- December 12th — Speakers' closing arguments. Post your final comments and vote for your winner.
- December 16th — Debate winner announced.
Christmas double edition
The Christmas issue of The Economist is a double edition, designed to keep you informed and entertained into the new year.
Highlights include:
- The economics of marriage
- Why Tintin is the perfect European
- The dangers of ignoring Darwin
- Why the Chinese are bad at football
The Christmas double edition is available online at Economist.com from December 18th and will be on news-stands the next day. The first 2009 edition is out on January 5th. If you have not already subscribed to The Economist, sign up now. It is quick and easy to do—and means you won't miss an issue.
In the new year, we will be making a host of improvements to the Economist.com website to make it easier for you to keep updated and get involved. These include a new and improved mobile version, continued improvements to our pages (with a newly designed "My account" page launching shortly), and we will be expanding the way you can interact with us and your fellow Economist readers through our reader network. Look out for more details in the new year.
In the meantime, I look forward to seeing how you vote in our online debate. And don't forget to order your copy of our inauguration audio set today, and look out for our double Christmas edition.
Yours sincerely,
Ben Edwards
Publisher
Economist.com
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FORBES.COM MUTUAL FUND AND ETF INSIGHTS
WEEK OF DECEMBER 8, 2008
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Mutual Funds:
Exchange-Traded Funds:
Featured Articles:
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SPECIAL OFFER
SPDR RUSSELL/NOMURA SMALL-CAP JAPAN (nyse: JSC)
Recommended by: John Christy, Forbes International Investment Report
Fund inception: November, 2006
"JSC invests in a basket of 375 smaller Japanese companies, with an average market cap of $1 billion. The fund has held up surprisingly well compared to other global markets this year, down 24% YTD compared to a 47% plunge for the EAFE index. The big attraction is valuation. On average, Nomura Small Cap holdings trade at just 11.5x estimated earnings and 77% of book value."
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Performance
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Top Holdings
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1-Month: -4.7%
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Hokuto Corp.
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3-Month: -11.5%
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McDonald's Holding
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YTD: -24.4%
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Circle K Sunkus
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1-Year: -28.6%
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Kyudenko Corp.
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Assets: $71.9M
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Mochida Pharmaceutical
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Click here for more fund analysis and recommendations in John Christy's Forbes International Investment Report.
TOP PERFORMING FUND-OF-FUNDS
FUND
|
3-Year
Return
|
1-Year
Return
|
5-Year
Return
|
GMO Alpha Only III (GGHEX)
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8.3%
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14.0%
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6.4%
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Waddell & Reed Invested Conserv (WICAX)
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4.7
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1.6
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4.1
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FundX Flexible Income (INCMX)
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4.3
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-1.3
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4.1
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GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation (GBMFX)
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3.8
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-12.8
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9.4
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| Eaton Vance Low Duration (EALDX)
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3.5
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0.4
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2.8 |
WORST PERFORMING FUND-OF-FUNDS
FUND
|
3-Year
Return
|
1-Year
Return
|
5-Year
Return
|
SunAmerica Focused Equity Strat (FESAX)
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-15.6%
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-50.2%
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-5.9%
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SEI Asset Alloc Divers U.S. Stock (SADDX)
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-15.4
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-47.0
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-5.7
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SEI Asset Alloc Divers Global (SDGDX)
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-15.3
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-49.5
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-5.0
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Lifetime Achievement (LFTAX)
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-15.2
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-51.4
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-5.4
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| MH Elite Small Cap Fund of Funds (MHELX)
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-14.8
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-43.6
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-4.7 |
Through 12/05/08. Source: Morningstar.com
MUTUAL FUND ASSETS (billions)
|
Type
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October, 2008
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Stocks
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$3,935.4
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Taxable Bonds
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1,211.9
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Muni Bonds
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350.8
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Money Markets
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3,590.1 |
The combined assets of the nation's mutual funds decreased by $1.087 trillion, or 10.2%, to $9.600 trillion in October. Stock funds posted an outflow of $72.29 billion in October, compared with an outflow of $56.36 billion in September. Among stock funds, world equity funds posted an outflow of $24.96 billion in October, versus an outflow of $22.75 billion in September.
Source: Investment Company Institute
SPECIAL OFFER
Did you miss the Forbes.com Investor iConference? For a limited time you can see on demand presentations of Steve Forbes, Rich Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, and an all-star line up of investment advisers and market experts, including economist Gary Shilling, fixed-income expert Richard Lehmann and small-cap stock adviser Jim Oberweis.
Click here to access the Forbes.com iConference on demand.
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TOP PERFORMING BEAR MARKET ETFs
ETF
|
1-Year
Return
|
1-Month
Return
|
Total
Assets
|
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductor (SSG)
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172.6%
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100.7%
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$45M
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ProShares UltraSh Russell MidCap (SDK)
|
132.5
|
96.9
|
10
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ProShares UltraShort Technology (REW)
|
121.3
|
79.1
|
78
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ProShares UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
|
109.5
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30.6
|
139
|
| ProShares UltraSh Russell 1000 Growth (SFK)
|
108.0
|
68.3
|
28
|
| ProShares UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
|
102.4
|
74.9
|
91
|
| ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
|
100.5
|
116.9
|
171
|
| ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID)
|
94.9
|
69.0
|
780
|
| Rydex Inverse 2X S&P 500 (RSW)
|
88.2
|
40.9
|
85
|
| Rydex Inverse 2X S&P MidCap 400 (RMS)
|
87.6
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65.0
|
7 |
Through 12/04/08. Source: Morningstar.com
ETF FUND ASSETS (millions)
|
Type
|
October, 2008
|
Domestic Equity
|
$332.9
|
Global Equity
|
101.1
|
Bond
|
48.2 |
The assets of all ETFs fell in October to $97.19 billion, or 16.8%, to $ 482.32 billion. Over the past 12 months, ETF assets decreased $105.86 billion or 18.0%. Assets in domestic equity ETFs decreased $40.50 billion since October 2007, and global equity ETFs assets fell $82.54 billion during this period.
Source: Investment Company Institute
SPECIAL OFFER
Jensen's Alpha Dog
Robert Zagunis is co-manager of the Jensen Portfolio, a no-load mutual fund with a market-beating track record.
Joshua Lipton
Robert Zagunis, co-manager of the Jensen Portfolio, looks for stocks of companies with high rates of return, solid balance sheets and experienced management. The strategy isn't too complicated or fancy but it sure works: Through Dec. 3, the fund generated a 10-year annualized return of 3.00%, beating the S&P 500 by 3.93 percentage points and leading its Morningstar "large growth" category by 10.36 percentage points. We recently spoke to Zagunis, who offered his outlook on the stock market and where he's finding the stocks he's buying right now.
Click here for the Zagunis interview and to get his fund's top 10 buys.
Riding The Bench, Waiting To Go In
Waiting for inverse ETFs to get oversold and then buying the rally has been better than going long this market.
David Penn, TradingMarkets.com
The number of overbought, low-rated Short-Term PowerRatings stocks is not large, but its ranks are growing. At the same time, on the high Short-Term PowerRating front, a few short or inverse exchange-traded funds like the Proshares UltraShort Consumer Services ETF are starting to appear in our Top 25 PowerRatings list, a roster of the highest rated stocks available for traders. The unfortunate part is that we are not quite overbought enough for many of the opportunities in inverse/short ETFs to be truly attractive.
Click here to learn more.
Gurus Take A Shine To Gold
The best-performing online investors commit to the yellow metal.
Joshua Lipton; data from Marketocracy
The M100, the best-performing online investors, last week bet big on gold. One reason that the sought-after metal now looks like a glittering investment: U.S. central bankers are working double time to reflate this sagging economy by whatever means necessary. The M100 moved decisively last week into this exchange-traded fund, which is a leveraged bet on the price of gold.
Click here for the M100's gold play.
Women's Health Pure Play
This company spans the spectrum of women's health. Once it digests a big acquisition from last year, the stock will soar.
John Dobosz
Health care stocks can give you some shelter from the storm of a monstrous bear market. Just take a look at a couple of the big exchange-traded funds tracking the sector.
Click here for more.
For information about advertising in Forbes.com Mutual Fund And ETF Insights, please e-mail lbentley@forbes.net.
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