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    2월 28일

    Individualisation


    Economist Debate Series

     

    Individualisation

    The opening shot has been fired and our contest is off to a racing start. Join our debate now to read our speakers' statements and cast your vote.

    The proposition

    "This house believes that if the promise of technology is to simplify our lives, it is failing."

    Join debate

    Pro
    Richard Szafranski, founding member and partner, Toffler Associates.

    "Technology warmed the planet, added pollutants to the atmosphere and oceans, affected life forms by changing the background magnetic field (including adding increased extremely low-frequency radiation), enabled nuclear weapons and created thousands of chemical compounds that can help or hurt life."

    Con
    John Maeda, president elect of the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD)

    "The bad rap given to technologies today will be only temporary. Yes my wireless Bluetooth headset sometimes forgets that my iPhone exists even when they are only a millimeter apart … But we are in a transitional period where technologies are brittle not because they are failing per se—they are just new and experimental."

    Join debate

    The first debate in this series investigated a vital area of public policy; the second focuses firmly on the individual. Yet it would be a mistake to believe that this shift signals a narrowing of the discussion.

    This debate is about a question most of us grapple with on a daily basis: is technology making our lives too complicated? Two dimensions of the issue emerge from the thoughtful opening statements.

    Richard Szafranski's statement begins by addressing what is surely a concern for many on the floor: namely, the broad impact of technology on our environment. Surely, he argues, the force of global warming, polluted oceans and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction constitute complications in our lives. Mr Szafranski goes on to argue that the breakneck development of personal technology is causing consumers to suffer from over-choice as well as surplus complexity. Choosing between so many options is hard and increasingly complicated work, he claims. And this is quite ironic given that many of these gadgets were created for the express purpose of simplifying our lives.

    John Maeda, arguing against the proposition, accepts that technology can add complexity to our lives, but also maintains that technology has the capacity to remove the even greater complexity that existed beforehand: who would not grapple with a fidgety hearing-aid if in the end it overcomes deafness? He also raises the prospect that we are entering a time of simplification, a renaissance of design-led development. In short, the bad rap given to technologies today will be only temporary.

    Where does the balance lie? Mr Maeda reckons there is 90% upside and 10% downside; Mr Szafranski, without putting a number on it, thinks it is the other way around. What do you think?

    Debate event schedule

    • February 28th - Guest speaker, Jack Santos, posts
    • February 29th - Rebuttals. Share your comments on the issues so far, and vote
    • March 4th - Guest speaker, Tim Ferriss, posts
    • March 5th - Closing arguments by the speakers. Post any additional comments you would like to share and vote for your winner
    • March 7th - Debate winner announced

    As always, I await your comments and your votes.

    Sincerely,

    Daniel Franklin signature

    Daniel Franklin
    Debate Moderator
    Executive Editor, The Economist

     
    The Moderator
    Daniel Franklin pic
    Daniel Franklin
    Executive Editor, The Economist
    More
     
    The Speakers
    Richard Szafranski pic
    PRO: Richard Szafranski
    Partner, Toffler Associates
    More

     
    John Maeda pic
    CON: John Maeda
    President elect, RISD
    More

     
    Featured Guests
    Jack Santos pic
    Jack Santos
    CIO Executive Strategist, The Burton Group
     
    Tim Ferriss pic
    Tim Ferriss
    Author, "The Four Hour Work Week"
     
    Sponsor
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    Official sponsor of The Economist Debate Series on Freedom and its Digital Discontents  
     
    Debate Q&A:
    Bill Hughes, Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications, CA


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    2월 22일

    Buffett, Ackman Move In For The Kill

    Buffett, Ackman Move In For The Kill

    New York Post   |  Paul Tharp   |   February 21, 2008 02:55 PM

    Like stealth tigers, billionaires Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman are moving in for the kill of the wounded bond-insurance business - but their ultimate meal could turn mean and messy.

    Ackman, 41, has been stalking the bond-insurance companies for years with a strong hunch they'd become broke overnight and would earn him a windfall by betting on their demise.

    Buffett, 77, who built a huge fortune on nuts-and-bolts insurance, has coveted the bond-insurance world's only treasure chest - its ultra-safe bets on municipal borrowing, since local governments almost never go bust.

    Keep Reading


    Other Buffett stories in the news today:

    -- Jamie Johnson's new film "The One Percent" spotlights Buffett's relationship with his son's adopted daughter.

    -- Warren's son Peter hopes to stage a musical in China.

    Microsoft to Share More Technical Secrets

    The New York Times
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    February 22, 2008

    Microsoft to Share More Technical Secrets

    Seeking to satisfy European antitrust officials, Microsoft said on Thursday that it would open up and share many more of its technical secrets with the rest of the software industry and competitors.

    Microsoft executives, in a conference call, characterized the announcement as a “strategic shift” in the company’s business practices and its handling of technical information. They also portrayed the moves as only partly a nod to the continuing challenge Microsoft faces from Europe’s antitrust regulators.

    The broader goal, they said, is to bring Microsoft’s flagship personal computer products — the Windows operating system and Office productivity programs — further into the Internet era of computing. Increasingly, people want a seamless flow of documents, data and programming code among desktop PCs and the Internet, especially as they make the shift from using software on a PC to using services on the Web.

    “These steps are being taken on our own,” said Steven A. Ballmer, Microsoft’s chief executive. The move, he said, was a recognition of Microsoft’s “unique legal situation,” but it was also the company’s effort to adapt to “the opportunities and risks of a more connected, more services-oriented world.”

    Microsoft’s first step will be to put on its Web site 30,000 pages of technical documentation detailing how its Windows desktop and Microsoft server programs communicate and share information. Until now, that information was treated as a trade secret and was available only under a special license.

    Ray Ozzie, Microsoft’s chief software architect, said that by sharing more information, Microsoft would make it easier for others to write Internet programs that tap into personal information on a PC.

    That, Mr. Ozzie added, should bring new sets of Web services that, for example, might match a person’s calendar information with a doctor’s schedule. Then smart software could make an appointment. At home, he noted, someone’s digital collection of music, movies and family photos would be more easily shuffled to different devices and screens.

    “The Internet opens up a world of potential innovation,” Mr. Ozzie said. “And I think we’ve just scratched the surface.”

    Microsoft announced other plans to open up its technology, like allowing developers to add more non-Microsoft document formats to its Office word processing and spreadsheet programs. Microsoft also made commitments to increase its support for industry standards and work with open-source software developers.

    European regulators and others have long accused Microsoft of using its dominance in PC operating systems and software to lock out competitors. Last October, after a nine-year confrontation and a ruling against the company by Europe’s second-highest court, Microsoft agreed to share information with rivals on terms it had long resisted. Then, after fresh complaints from Microsoft’s competitors, the European antitrust regulators last month announced that they were opening new investigations of the company.

    The new inquiry focuses partly on whether Microsoft has withheld essential information from competitors that want to make products that work smoothly with its Office programs. The Office products were not part of the previous European action against Microsoft.

    After the Microsoft announcement on Thursday, the European Commission issued a skeptical statement. The commission said it “would welcome any move towards genuine interoperability,” or allowing software programs from different companies to work smoothly together. But the commission noted that “today’s announcement follows at least four similar statements by Microsoft in the past on the importance of interoperability.”

    Asked about the commission’s statement, Bradford L. Smith, Microsoft’s general counsel, said that the company’s moves were “qualitatively and quantitatively different from anything we’ve done in the past.”

    “People will test us not just by our words but by our actions,” Mr. Smith added.

    The industry is taking a wait-and-see stance on Microsoft’s plan. Linux, an open-source competitor to Windows, stands to benefit from Microsoft’s more open posture. Regulators and competition are “forcing Microsoft to change the way it does business,” said James Zemlin, executive director of the Linux Foundation, a nonprofit consortium.

    The change comes as Microsoft is trying to buy Yahoo, a huge deal that, if it proceeds, will be closely scrutinized by antitrust officials worldwide. The European regulators typically take a harder line than their American counterparts in challenging takeovers.

    “To get the deal approved, Microsoft has to convince the European regulators that it has changed its spots on interoperability, no longer acting like a proprietary monopoly,” said Ken Wasch, president of the Software and Information Industry Association, a trade group that includes Microsoft competitors like I.B.M., Oracle, Sun Microsystems and Red Hat.

    Microsoft is also trying to win approval from an international standards body for its new document format, Office Open XML. Microsoft contends its format is “open,” meaning files in the format can be created and read by anyone.

    A different format standard for Internet-based computing, the OpenDocument Format, is supported by I.B.M., Google, Oracle and other Microsoft rivals. They assert that the proposed Microsoft standard is complex and layered with the company’s own features, making it effectively a corporate standard instead of a truly open one.

    Last September, Microsoft failed to win enough support for its standard from the International Organization for Standardization. But the standards body will review that decision in proceedings that begin next week.

    2월 20일

    Quote of The Day #76

    The call and need of a new era is for fulfillment. It's for passionate optimization for significant contribution and greatness.
    [ Stephen R. Covey, The 8th Habit: From Effectiveness To Greatness ]

    Buffett Angers Rival Insurers Over Moody's Deal

    Buffett Angers Rival Insurers Over Moody's Deal

    New York Post   |  Paul Tharp   |   February 19, 2008 10:22 AM

    Cries of foul arose yesterday against Warren Buffett after the powerful credit-rating agency Moody's Investors Service - in which he's the largest shareholder - began pulling the rug out from under his rival insurers to force them into "egregious" deals with Buffett.

    Allegations of conflicts came from insurance industry sources as the credit crisis deepened over fears that insurance guarantees trading widely on Wall Street - basically private IOUs backing trillions of dollars of bonds and junk paper debt - could become almost worthless.

    Last week, the Oracle of Omaha rode to the rescue of the bond-insurance crowd, saying he'd shoulder some of the guarantees himself using his own insurance empire, but only for a very high price. He also would cherry-pick the best insurance bets for himself and leave the failed books of business behind in company shells.

    Microsoft Readies Yahoo Proxy Battle

    Microsoft Readies Yahoo Proxy Battle

    JESSICA MINTZ | February 19, 2008 07:14 PM EST |

    SEATTLE — Microsoft Corp. is getting ready to take its bid for Yahoo right to the Web portal's shareholders, even as analysts wait for a higher offer.

    Separately, Yahoo Inc. adopted new severance packages that protect employees in the event of a Microsoft takeover.

    Microsoft has hired proxy solicitation group Innisfree M&A Inc. to help oust Yahoo's 10-member board, all of whom are up for re-election this year.

    A source close to the deal who is not authorized to speak publicly about it said Tuesday that Microsoft could spend $20 million to $30 million on that effort.

    That's much less than the $1.4 billion each $1 uptick in Microsoft's bid would cost. Microsoft's offer two weeks ago was originally worth about $44.6 billion, or $31 a share. Based on Microsoft's closing share price Tuesday, the offer is now worth about $40 billion.

    The Redmond, Wash.-based software maker's board plans to authorize a proxy battle this week, according to The New York Times DealBook blog. It has until March 14 to nominate a slate of directors for Yahoo. Microsoft and its advisers declined to comment.

    Election results would be announced at Yahoo's annual meeting. Last year's was held in June.

    Microsoft also may simultaneously circumvent Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Yahoo's management and ask shareholders to sell their stock to Microsoft directly.

    So far, Microsoft has given no signs it will raise its bid, even though a person familiar with earlier talks between the two companies said Microsoft was willing to pay at least $40 per share for Yahoo a year ago. That person spoke on condition of anonymity because the offer was never made public.

    In an interview with The Associated Press Monday, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said the software maker was not talking to Yahoo about raising its bid.

    Analysts, however, still believe there's wiggle room.

    "I don't think what they're saying now precludes" a higher offer, said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Charles DiBona.

    DiBona also said he thinks Microsoft would prefer not to go hostile but will if no progress has been made by the March deadline.

    Yahoo reiterated Tuesday that its board is "carefully and thoroughly evaluating all of the company's strategic alternatives."

    The Web portal and search company's new severance plans _ to take effect if Microsoft succeeds in its takeover bid _ cover Yahoo's top executives and all full-time employees. The plans are designed to keep workers on board even if the company changes hands. They also could make it harder for Microsoft to move Yahoo staff to Redmond and raise the overall cost of integrating the two companies.

    In an e-mail to employees last Friday, Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang wrote that the severance plans "shouldn't be construed as any indication that a change in control might or might not take place."

    The company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Tuesday that workers who lose their jobs without "cause" or quit "for good reason," as Yahoo defines it, would continue to receive their salary and medical benefits for four to 24 months, plus reimbursement for "outplacement services" for two years.

    A Yahoo spokeswoman would not say what might constitute good reason.

    Departing employees' stock options would also vest faster than scheduled under the new plans.

    Microsoft has said it will offer significant retention packages to Yahoo engineers and other key employees, including some executives. The software maker has not said how many jobs could be cut if the companies combined.

    Yahoo's board spurned Microsoft's bid last week, saying it "substantially undervalues" Yahoo's assets.

    Microsoft fired back that its offer was "full and fair," and that it would "pursue all necessary steps" to get the deal done.

    Shares of Microsoft slipped 14 cents to close at $28.17, while Yahoo's stock fell 65 cents, or 2.2 percent, to close at $29.01.

    Microsoft to authorize Yahoo proxy battle

    Microsoft to authorize Yahoo proxy battle
    Software giant is 'giving both the carrot and the stick,' analyst says
    MSNBC News Services
    updated 6:04 p.m. ET Feb. 19, 2008

    SEATTLE - Microsoft Corp. will authorize a proxy battle for Yahoo Inc. this week to convince the Web company's shareholders to agree on a takeover deal that the Yahoo board so far has rejected, the New York Times' DealBook blog said on Tuesday.

    Quoting people briefed on the matter, the Times Web site said that Microsoft, which has been expected to raise its cash-and-stock bid originally worth $44.6 billion, would seek to nominate a slate of directors by March 13, if Yahoo's board did not enter talks.

    (Msnbc.com is a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC Universal.)

    A Microsoft spokesman said the company had always maintained it reserves the right to exercise all options but declined to comment specifically on the DealBook report.

    A person familiar with the matter told Reuters a proxy fight would cost about $20 million to $30 million but was not aware of Microsoft making the decision to pursue the fight.

    "Microsoft is doing the smart thing. It's giving both the carrot and the stick," said Morningstar analyst Toan Tran. "The carrot was the big premium on Yahoo stock and now the stick is the threat of a proxy fight."

    Proxy fights waged by corporations to facilitate a hostile acquisition are rare and represent less than 5 percent of all proxy fights since 2001, according to data from research firm FactSet SharkWatch.

    Microsoft is not privately haggling with Yahoo over the software maker’s rejected $31-per-share buyout offer for the slumping Internet pioneer, Bill Gates said in an interview.

    “We sent them a letter and said we think that’s a fair offer. There’s nothing that’s gone on other than us stating that we think it’s a fair offer,” the Microsoft chairman said Monday. “They should take a hard look at it.”

    The two companies are at a stand-off in Microsoft's unsolicited bid to acquire Yahoo. Microsoft has offered to buy Yahoo for $31 a share in cash and stock, a bid which Yahoo's board rejected, saying it undervalued the company.

    Microsoft countered by saying that its offer was "full and fair," but did not say what it planned to do next.

    The deal is now worth $41.9 billion due to the decline of value in Microsoft's stock.

    The fees for paying lawyers and solicitation firms to wage a proxy fight are a fraction of what it would cost Microsoft to raise its offer. For every dollar the offer is increased, it would cost Microsoft an additional $1.4 billion.

    If Microsoft decides to launch a proxy fight, it would nominate a slate of directors to take control of Yahoo's board and support the company's proposal. The nominees would be voted on at Yahoo's annual shareholder meeting in June.

    A Yahoo-Microsoft proxy fight would be largest corporate proxy fight in the eight years FactSet SharkWatch has been tracking statistics on this, it said.

    Yahoo is adopting severance plans to take effect if the Web portal is taken over by Microsoft Corp.

    The plans cover all of Yahoo’s full-time employees, including its top executives, for two years after a change in control of the company.

    Workers who lose their job without cause — or quit for good reason as Yahoo defines it — would continue to receive their salary and medical benefits for four to 24 months, plus reimbursement for “outplacement services” for two years.

    The departing employees’ stock options would also vest faster than scheduled.

    Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report.

    URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23237868/


    © 2008 MSNBC.com
    2월 19일

    The Auction Start today !

    Dear Friends,
     
    I just want to inform all of you that The Auction of my collections at www.ebay.com start today !  You could check the auction listing at:
     
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    Roby Widjaja.
    2월 17일

    How Buffett’s Railroad Investments Work


    Breaking News from MoneyNews.com

    How Buffett’s Railroad Investments Work

    Railroads may be cannon-balling ahead towards bigger profits, and Warren Buffett saw it coming as early as last year when he bought an 11 percent stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

    The current surge in railroad activity, both in shipping and upgrading began in 2003 when the economy was booming along with increased imports, principally from Asia.

    Goods and materials were stacking up on America's coastal ports, and as freight volume increased, the traditional method of shipping via truck did not seem as efficient and economical a method to shippers as it once did.

    Burlington Northern is the nation's leading railroad in market value — about $3 billion — and in sales. But when Buffett bought shares in the firm for a second time last month, the stock was at a 52-week low of $77.

    Buffett also knew that rail lines across the country, but principally in the South, were upgrading tracks, laying new tracks, repairing bridges, widening tunnels and enhancing facilities along their right-of-way as business increased quarter by quarter.

    A number of competitive advantages for rail shipping over long-haul trucking have since become apparent. Among them are:

    • Increased fuel costs for trucking, providing railroads with an edge in pricing.
    • Increased highway congestion slows or delays overland trucking.
    • Increases in refrigerated and time-sensitive freight.
    • A scarcity of qualified truck drivers.

    Those advantages and a beat-down stock price, prompted Buffett, the legendary value investor, to acquire through Berkshire Hathaway $228 million in Burlington a month ago.

    Buffett's purchase raised his Berkshire Hathaway position in Burlington to a substantial 18 percent stake.

    Editor’s Note: Warren Buffett's Top 39 Stock Picks Revealed

    Buffett watchers point out that he used a classic financial metric, return on invested capital (ROIC), to calculate the company's future profit potential.

    ROIC measures a company's allocation of capital to its operations and how efficiently this is done. Cost of capital compared to ROIC is also an element in the equation.

    If the ROIC numbers look good, buying shares in the company, under this formula, seems like a smart move for the long-term buy and hold investor.

    A major caveat, however: If the ROIC measure is too low, buying is not advisable, no matter how low the share price.

    What about railroad stocks in general?

    Although rail shipping traffic has declined in step with the economy, future prospects seem bright.

    • Foreign imports are likely to increase.
    • The U.S. population is destined to grow.
    • The economy will inevitably turn around.
    • Rail shipping is currently cheaper and in many cases faster than trucking.
    • Even trucking firms are using railroads to move their freight part way toward their destinations.

    "The railroad industry is finally making some money," Charles Moorman, CEO Norfolk Southern Corp., recently told The Wall Street Journal. "And we're pumping that money into our infrastructure."

    Which means they're anticipating more business, certainly a bullish sign

    Behind Buffett (the man who was born on August 30th 1930)'s Bond Gambit

    BusinessWeek logo 

    The S&P/BusinessWeek Global Innovation Index

    News Analysis February 13, 2008, 12:01AM EST text size: TT

    Behind Buffett's Bond Gambit

    The Berkshire Hathaway chief's offer to reinsure $800 billion in munis may signal a move to dominate the bond insurance biz

    by David Bogoslaw

    The role of the white knight who swoops in to rescue a business in distress is one that Warren Buffett plays well, and he's profited nicely from it in the past. Remember his bailout of Salomon Brothers in the early 1990s? But the financial guaranty outfits whose municipal-bond liabilities the billionaire investor offered to take over last week may not wish to take part in Buffett's latest performance.

    In an interview on CNBC Business News on Feb. 12, Buffett said that in the prior week his company Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) had offered to reinsure about $800 billion worth of tax-exempt municipal bonds insured by three leading financial guaranty firms, which would allow them to preserve their coveted triple-A ratings. He would also put $5 billion of capital into his new bond insurance company, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance, to provide it with the wherewithal to cover the assumed liabilities.

    At-Risk Insurers Might Say No

    Buffett's move comes at a particularly anxious time for the bond insurance industry. The three companies to whom Buffett made the offer—MBIA (MBI), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), and privately held Financial Guaranty Insurance (FGIC)—have been doggedly trying to secure capital infusions from investment banks, private equity firms, and other sources, to help them preserve their triple-A ratings, a requirement if they hope to attract new business. The insurers face the prospect of going under if they can't raise ample cash to cover all the claims that would result if the asset-backed securities that they have insured—including collateralized debt obligations—should default.

    Shares of MBIA and Ambac fell more than 15% on Feb. 12.

    Buffett is giving the bond insurers 30 days to shop around for a better offer, but he told CNBC that one of the companies has already rejected his bid.

    Market observers presume that MBIA has already turned down Buffett's offer, as the company has a commitment from Warburg Pincus to buy $1 billion in convertible preferred stock and last week issued $1 billion in new common stock.

    And MBIA may not be the only one to rebuff Buffett. "I'm not sure any of them will take this offer because it's not clear to me that it's that beneficial either from a rating agency perspective and certainly from a financial perspective," says Gary Ransom, an equity analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton in West Hartford, Conn. "The scales are tipped steeply toward Buffett," he says. (Fox-Pitt or its affiliates may seek compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire Hathaway during the next three months.)

    Buffett Presses His Advantage

    The reason for going public with his offer was probably the hope of getting the ratings agencies and regulators to put pressure on the bond insurers to accept the deal, says Whitney Tilson, managing partner at T2 Partners, a hedge fund manager in New York.

    Buffett has made it very clear that there's nothing altruistic about his offer. He stands to make a lot of money by assuming these policies, given that the cities and towns that issue munis hardly ever default on their debt. When they do, the recovery rate is more than 90%, compared with a 50% recovery rate in corporate debt defaults, says Tilson.

    Buffett has long had his eye on the muni-bond insurance business and in December announced he was starting Berkshire Hathaway Assurance.

    "It's certainly an easy way to scale up the business quickly by buying books of insurance policies from the three largest players," says Tilson.

    Buffett's opportunism could pay big dividends. If it's successful in taking over the liabilities of MBIA, Ambac, and FGIC, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance would be well on its way to becoming the only game in town, said Mark Hirschey, the Anderson W. Chandler Professor of Business at the University of Kansas.

    "If you're a new issuer of municipal bonds, you're not going to Ambac or MBIA or anyone else. You're going to Berkshire Hathaway," he said. "Its offer to take $800 billion in assets is an attempt to extend their advantage in writing new business to taking some of the booked business that the industry already has."

    Market participants said they don't believe Buffett's offer is in any way motivated by concerns about protecting his broader financial holdings. "His portfolio is in very safe short-term Treasurys. He's extremely well positioned," said Tilson.

    In his interview on CNBC on the morning of Feb. 12, Buffett said he was offering better-than-market terms by asking the bond insurers to pay him 1.5 times their unearned premium reserves, when he typically gets paid twice the original insurance premium to reinsure muni bonds, Tilson said.

    As of Dec. 31, the unearned premium at MBIA alone was $6 billion, which included deferred premium revenue of $3.1 billion, Hirschey said.

    But for MBIA and Ambac, it's not their muni-bond business that's in trouble—it's their structured finance business. And that's all they would be left with if they were to accept Buffett's offer.

    "This is a sensible offer, but probably not the best offer from the bond insurers' standpoint," said Tom Kersting, an equity analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis.

    Insurers Look to Banks and the Fed

    The bond insurers haven't exhausted their options yet. There's still a chance that banks with exposure to credit default swaps will come through with a bailout plan, and regulators are interested in propping up these insurers, if only to avoid a bigger threat to the entire financial system by risking the wholesale downgrade of more than $2 trillion in muni bonds, said Kersting.

    Companies such as Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C) have a big incentive to work with the bond insurers. But given that they're facing huge losses themselves for their structured finance exposure, they are not in a position to be of much help. State regulators such as those in New York and Wisconsin don't have the financial muscle to shore up the bond insurers either, but the Federal Reserve has said it would use all the tools at its disposal to avoid a financial crisis.

    There may be another reinsurer that could make the bond insurers a better offer, but there aren't many that would be able to backstop it with $5 billion of capital, as Buffett is willing to do, Tilson said.

    And that may leave Buffett as the last best hope for battered bond insurers.

    Bogoslaw is a reporter for BusinessWeek's Investing channel .


    Xerox Color. It makes business sense.

     

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    2월 16일

    Unsurance

    FINANCE & ECONOMICS

    Insurers


    Unsurance
    Feb 14th 2008 | NEW YORK
    From The Economist print edition


    Sitting uncomfortably in the spotlight

    INSURERS are used to losing sleep over hurricanes, floods and fires. These days the catastrophes are of the credit rather than the climatic kind. Unexpected losses at the world's largest insurer, American International Group (AIG), are fuelling speculation that the industry is set for more write-downs. Meanwhile, the fate of bond insurers continues to move markets as they wrestle to prevent their debt from being downgraded. The latest twist is a “rescue” offer from a bond-insurance whippersnapper called Warren Buffett.

    Characteristically, the deal being offered by Mr Buffett is more cheeky than charitable. His recently formed bond insurer, with its AAA rating, would assume the risk in the $800 billion of municipal bonds guaranteed by three troubled “monoline” rivals, MBIA, Ambac and FGIC. In return, it would receive several billion dollars of up-front fees, calculated as a percentage of their future premiums. For $5 billion in capital, at a stroke, Mr Buffett would capture a third of the municipal-insurance market. “I did not dream this up in one of my pro-bono moments,” he told CNBC.

    The market would benefit, too. The monolines have acted as a transmission mechanism, infecting America's $2.6 trillion municipal-bond market with the disease they caught handling collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs). If the insurers lose their top-notch ratings, so would the municipal paper they guarantee. This prospect has caused several muni-bond auctions to fail this month. It also led to surging costs for borrowers such as New York's Port Authority, which saw the interest rate on some “auction-rate” securities jump from 4.2% to 20%.

    Being more isolation than cure, the plan does little for the monolines themselves. They would still be heavily exposed to subprime assets. They would still face downgrades, barring further capital injections. Banks exposed to them through credit derivatives would still face the “counterparty” risk that contracts are not honoured. That could end up costing them anywhere up to $70 billion.

    Mr Buffett makes no apology for his selectivity: the monolines' structured-finance business is almost certainly beyond saving, he thinks. Others are not yet convinced. New York's insurance commissioner continues to urge banks to explore bail-outs, so far to little avail.

    For all their woes, the monolines remain reluctant to cede the best bit of their business. Ambac has already rejected the Buffett plan. He has given FGIC and MBIA (whose corporate motto, Wisdom in Action, seems better suited to the Sage of Omaha) 30 days to sign up or find a better solution.

    Meanwhile, AIG's task is to explain a discrepancy that has forced it to write down CDO-related swaps by $4.9 billion. This is embarrassing. The figure is five times higher than the number AIG confidently offered in December. Its auditors have since identified a “material weakness” in how it values securities.

    It is even more worrying given AIG's size: it is thought to be the world's biggest seller of credit protection, and has $62 billion of exposure to CDOs with some subprime content. This wasn't supposed to happen under AIG's boss, Martin Sullivan, who was brought in to tidy up after an accounting scandal in 2005. His ousted predecessor, Hank Greenberg, who controls 13.6% of AIG, has complained that the firm is now run by “lawyers who don't know anything about business”.

    AIG insists its eventual losses, unlike its current mark-to-market hit, will not be “material”. But it has lost a lot of trust. Combine this with the monolines' grim prognosis, and it is easy to see why fear is growing that insurers could fall victim to further unnatural disasters.

    Copyright © 2008 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

    Buffett buys big stake in Kraft

    Buffett buys big stake in Kraft

    Billionaire investor adds the food company and drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline to his portfolio.

     

    Buffett bail-out

    Billionaire investor Warren Buffett offers to prop up troubled bond insurers with $800B in reinsurance.

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Warren Buffett's investment group, Berkshire Hathaway, bought more than 132 million shares of food company Kraft, according to a document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday.

    Billionaire Buffett, whose nickname is the "Oracle of Omaha," is one of the world's most well-known investors.

    Thursday's required fourth-quarter report of Berkshire's holdings also lists the addition of 1.5 million shares of European drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline.

    Speculation circulated in the middle of last year that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) would buy a stake in Kraft.

    Shares of Kraft Foods (KFT) grew 0.77 cents, or 2.63%, to $30.08 in after-hours trading. U.S.-traded shares of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) rose 0.85 cents, or 1.96% to $44.17.

    Earlier this week, Buffett shocked the markets by offering to reinsure about $800 billion of tax-exempt or municipal bond obligations of bond insurers MBIA (MBI), Ambac (ABK) and FGIC. 

    2월 10일

    I am looking for lifetime business partner(s). [ Version 2.0 ]

    Man is man because he is free to operate within the framework of his destiny. He is free to deliberate, to make decisions, and to choose between alternatives. He is distinguished from animals by his freedom to do evil or to do good and to walk the high road of beauty or tread the low road of ugly degeneracy.
    [ Martin Luther King, Jr. ] 
     
     
    Dear my Worldwide Friends,
     
    I am going to setup an Investment Company at Singapore. For that purpose, I am looking for Business Partner(s) who will be Chairman and Vice Chairman on that company. Me, myself, will be the Director and the Fund Manager also.
     
    The investment company will be a profit oriented investment fund company, but also it will have a corporate social responsibility mission to solve many global problems.
     
    The prospective business partner(s) whom I am looking for:
    1. He or She, or them (maximum two people), should be in StarTrek Age state of mind. It means, they don't see human being's differences based on age (young or old), races, tribes, religions, nationalities, or countries anymore. He or She, or Them, could have different race or religion or nationality or country to me. We will be bounded and work together by Universal Humanity Values.
    2. He or She, or them, understand a lot about Fund Management Industry.
    3. He or She, or them, are willing to treat me as equal partner sincerely, or as Best Friend, not as an employee. I am not looking for an employer.
    4. He or She, or them, should allow me to implement all my Fund Management Philosophy or method 100%. My Fund Management Philosophy is not too far from Mr. Warren Buffett's and Mr. George Soros's philosophy. I just added some Asian Style touch. I could say that I am 80% of Buffetology and 20% Sorostology, in term of Investment Philosophy.
    5. He or She, or them, could be a well known economist, well known fund manager, politician, ex-politician, or businesmen/women.
    6. I will hold 50% share on the Fund Management company, and my prospective partners will take 50% share also.
    7. He or She, or them, will be a lifetime business partner(s) for me. I am not looking for "summer time vacation" partnership. I am looking for eternal lifetime business partner(s).
    8. He or She or Them could stay and live outside or at Singapore as well. All day to day, weekly, monthly, 3-monthly could be done by email / teleconference if the Chairman(s) live and stay outside Singapore. In order to save travelling cost and too many painful trips (for some people trips/travelling could be a painful activity), Physical face to face meeting could be done just once a year together with Shareholders meeting. I do really agree with Mr. Buffett ( Buffettology ) who do not like to call his directors/managers for meeting too often.
     
    He or She, or Them, who are interested to be my business partner(s) could contact me at:
    Phone: +62-081-330-085-765 , or +62-81-330-085-765, or +62-031-5939919, or +62-31-5939919
    mail: Jl. Sutorejo Utara 23, Surabaya (City), ZIP code 60113, INDONESIA (Country).
     
    I do hope the meetings with the Prospective Chairman(s) could be done at Surabaya-INDONESIA. I do have limitation to travel outside Surabaya (City). To all prospective Chairman(s), Please do understand my personal limitation, it is not because I do not put respect to the prospective Chairman(s).
     
    Thank you.
     
    Regards,
    Roby Widjaja.

    Quote of The Day #75

    Let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire. Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York. Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania! Let freedom ring from the snowcapped Rockies of Colorado! Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California! But not only that; let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia! Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee! Let freedom ring from every hill and every molehill of Mississippi. From every mountainside, let freedom ring. And when this happens, when we let freedom ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old negro spiritual, "Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"

    [ Martin Luther King Jr., excerpt from his "I Have A Dream" speech ]

    2월 9일

    Quote of The Day #74

    Making acquisition or stocks buying decisions by emotion is just like drunk driving on the freeway. In the case of Yahoo's Acquisition by Microsoft, I position myself as "The Charlie Munger" for both Microsoft and Yahoo. But, in my own investment company (in progress) the Chairman(s) will be  "The Charlie Munger" who will remind me to call A.A. (Airlines Anonymous) everytime I want to buy stocks by emotion.
    [ Roby Widjaja, it was inspired by the Gospel of Mr. Warren Edward Buffett ]
     
    Note: This quote is 50% comedy. Adult only quote Smile
    2월 8일

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    Quote of The Day #73

    "...the more a leader become effective, the lesser effort which he or she need to influence and mobilize the more number of people, even the influence will have impact years after the leader has passed away. There is no direct relationship between the effectiveness of a leader with his or her status or position in an organization."
    [ a quotation of Dahlan Iskan's speech on a Leadership Seminar on Year 2001,  Chairman/CEO Jawa Pos, The Best Change Management or Organization Change Guru from Indonesia, The Best Journalism Guru in my life ]
     
     
     
     
    2월 7일

    The Auction start today !

    Dear Friends,
     
    I just want to inform all of you that The Auction of my collections at www.ebay.com start today !  You could check the auction listing at:
     
    Happy Auction !
     
    Thank you.
     
    Regards,
    Roby Widjaja.
     
     

    U.S. bank woes are "poetic justice": Buffett

    U.S. bank woes are "poetic justice": Buffett

    Wed Feb 6, 2008 7:09pm EST
     
    By Wojtek Dabrowski

    TORONTO (Reuters) - The woes in the U.S. financial sector are "poetic justice" for bankers who designed and sold complex investments that have since gone sour, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Wednesday.

    The head of the Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) group of companies also played down worries about a credit crunch by saying that recent interest rate cuts mean low-cost funds are readily available.

    But he warned that the U.S. dollar will continue to slide unless the country can rein in its yawning trade deficit -- the "biggest factor" behind the decline. Still, he said, the U.S. economy will "do very well over time."

    Buffett, one of the world's wealthiest people, appeared to see irony in the fact that many of the banks who marketed complex investments which have now crashed are bearing much of the fallout.

    "It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end," he said.

    Buffett, a legendary investor who has amassed a huge fortune through plays in a wide range of industries, has bet against the U.S. dollar in the past.

    In 2005, Berkshire had made a $21.8 billion bet that the U.S. dollar would fall. It later unwound that successful position as it found other non-U.S. investments.

    Buffett said on Wednesday in Toronto that the turmoil that has rocked the U.S. economy in recent months has imbued the markets with a healthy degree of caution, while the rate-cutting response from central bankers has ensured that cheap money remains available for borrowing.

    "I wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch. Funds are available," Buffett said during a question and answer session at a business event. "Money is available, and it's really quite cheap because of the lowering of rates that has taken place."

    He added: "What has happened is a repricing of risk and an unavailability of what I might call 'dumb money,' of which there was plenty around a year ago."

    Buffet was in Toronto for the Canadian launch of corporate-news firm Business Wire, which Berkshire bought in 2006.

    Buffett tends to favor companies with relatively simple businesses, strong management, consistent earnings, good returns on equity, and little debt.

    As of late last year, Berkshire's businesses employed about 220,000 people and the number is growing as the group continues to expand its portfolio of companies. The units generated a $10.27 billion profit on revenue of $90.2 billion from January to September.

    ($1=1.01 Canadian)

    (Reporting by Wojtek Dabrowski; Editing by Rob Wilson)

    © Reuters 2008 All rights reserved

    Happy Chinese New Year 2008 !

    For those who celebrate it...
    Happy Chinese New Year 2008, The Year of Rat or Wu Zi ! Party
    GONG XI FA CAI !
    GOD Bless You all abundantly !
     
    newyearnewyr3newyr5
    Each new year, people will decorate their homes with many New Year Graphics; the best of which are from the small town called Yangliuqing.
    Yanliuqing paintings were first produced between 1573 and 1620.